I made some simple assumptions and extrapolations. I get the below graph.

If we build up our carrying capacity gradually by 5 lakh vehicles every year, form the current 10 lakhs to 25 lakhs by 2011 and maintain that level. Assuming a 5% yearly volume reduction from current levels starting immediately it will take us 8 years to match the carrying capacity. This is including any increase in road space sharing Public transport vehicle count. If we did nothing we would be 103 Lakh vehicles by 2017 at 14% growth.

What should we do to get 5% reduction in Private vehicle YoY? 

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Things like Registration renewal every year (Involves Money)
INsurance increase if they have offensive driving history

Insurance based on the car or vehicle make year and model.
Ofcourse all this will only work when there is less corruption in the civic agencies that will execute these projects. 

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 Is vehicle registration the issue or plying of the same on the street? Should we control ownership or usage of the vehicles on the streets? Is the aim to have less vehicles overall or have less density on the streets? 

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IDS,

Based on historical growth rates, I estimate Bangalore's population to be some 7.5 million by then.  So 10 million vehicles might not happen.  These things will slow down. 

Our politicians react only when there is a crisis.  And there will be a massive one in the next few years.  The centre of Bangalore will reach a state of gridlock almost every day.  Then they will react.

The best solution is the Metro Phase I and II.  A mode of public transport that is independent of traffic conditions on the road surface means one has a choice to skip the jams. 

Other options are a petrol tax of Rs.10/l. Or annual usage fees depending on whether yours is a weekend/off-peak car or a regular car; different coloured plates can help distinguish.

You might also want to google "IEA 2020 or IEA 2030".  The IEA forecasts that the majority of the oil that we will need to use in 2030 will come from fields that are not yet discovered or not yet developed.  This has serious implications for personal transport.  We of course have our heads in the sand and hope something will rescue us.

Srivathsa

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These things will slow down. 

Nevertheless, now we are talking a degrowth to be able to sustain sanity on the roads. Regardless of population we either build road capacity to match vehicles or have vehicles to match road capacity. As I have suggested we can continue to increase road capacity to a certain level but the vehicles have to degrow to meet up somewhere in the middle. We cant have the dog chasing the tail.

So if we were to include a policy statement in the Transportation policy what would targets be for both road capacity and vehicle volume on the street?

I point to this exercise. 50% reduction is possible due to congestion charging. Which means we can match future capacity right away!!! I have a poll out here as well.

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Usage control is more important than ownership control. If this is controlled, ownership will naturally comedown. People will think twice in investing for something whose usage is controlled and restricted everywhere. But, ownership should also be controlled. People having multiple cars parked on the streets blocking the traffic is another problem of unrestricted ownership.

Congestion charges as well as strict  traffic police fining for even very minute mistake can make people think twice before using(to the extent everyone should call traffic police 'ridiculous').

But, who will ring the bell? No one in India is dare enough to introduce congestion charges and Bus Lanes. I should say politicians are doing Vote Bank Politics and hence are not daring.

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IDS,

everything you say makes sense.

car ownership cannot and should not be controlled. because man's love affair with the automobile has not waned, but curbing and controlling usage, certainly!

however, there's the human psychology aspect that must be considered. what all of you suggest is a major overhaul in the way we move about in our urban areas. thats a big behavioural and attitudinal change. so before you bring down car usage, the quality of public transport has to improve, there has to be a user friendly information system like route maps, info at buststops etc, & punctuality & relaiblilty. also,  it is necc to  implement everything simultaneously. right now, the number of buses might have increased but the service leaves a lot to be desired. its the most confusing bus service in the world.

with this we have also to give a huge boost to non-motorized transport. repair footpaths, make cycling tracks, make a good network of  ped Xings...until then, its just not ok to disrupt  people's lives by a congestion tax and other curbing policies. we have to keep people at the centre of policies specially when  bring in behavior change-inducing ones. right now, our babu's think and act in compartments. that has to change.

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so before you bring down car usage, the quality of public transport has to improve

I absolutely agree on the state of the current PT quality and that is why I have this option specifically mentioned in this poll. 

But, knowing there is a head-in-the-sand approach to enabling a better quality of public transport wouldnt the restrictions caused by congestion charging put pressure on the administration to make the alternates work? The policy has to set direction to move everything into enabling this. There has to be a realization to make this work and not leave it open ended.

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Jenny,

Yes public transport has to improve and so on.  But knowing the general attitude it will never be "good enough for me".    This is like waiting for the roads to get perfect before we go out driving or for the pavements to be perfect before we go walking.  Or waiting for our driving skills to be perfect before we start driving :).

for change to happen there has to some pain in the system.  If there are congestion charges and people start considering public transport for even 25% of their trips, then their eyes open to all the benefits and the pains of using PT in Bangalore.  Then the pressure will be on the politicians and bureaucrats to deliver. 

Believe me, PT is not half as bad as is made out.  I use BMTC regularly and the pain is more in getting to and from the bus stop (courtesy bad pavements, unsafe crossings) than in the journey itself.  

Srivathsa

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The debate hereunder sums it all up.

Let's add "introduction of competetion for BMTC, to begin with in feeder/ shuttle services" as one of the "people's manifesto" points in the forthcoming BBMP elections

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IDS, Srivatsa

the only point i am making is this.

it has been said ...build a city fr cars and you get cars (which is what bangalore has done)

but the reverse shd also hold true...build a city for PT and you get a city dominated by PT ! so if we have to build a city for PT, then you need the works...good efficint buses/trains, footpaths/ cycling paths.... disincentives for cars is embedded in this model.

hey, we're not discussing anything new here...its  tried and tested  in many parts of the world as we know.

in the context of bangalore (or urban india) car users. are by and large, better off, educated, professional, etc etc. while we  tax their wallets, with a congestion tax, why additonally tax their nerves?? switching to PT in its current avataar, will increase stress levels hugely and probably affect productivity.  who talked of perfect? a competent PT system will do. remember , you srivatsa, are an environmentally aware, determined-to-use-PT type of person who will put up with some hardship towards the cause of of sustainability. most car owners are not and would not!

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 [video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33T7VxT2O40&feature=player_embedded]

FYI for the are which came under congestion charging in this video there already existed metro for decades. So why was there congestion despite metro? 

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so if we have to build a city for PT, then you need the works...good efficint buses/trains, footpaths/ cycling paths...

We are already seeing a few footpaths cropping up here and there... we should keep at it till we get a city which is pedestrian/people friendly

...disincentives for cars is embedded in this model.

It is very difficult for PT to compete with cars on time to destination unless there are supports to PT in the form of priority lanes, congestion charging etc. I dont trust BMTC with its current reach and realiability but then with so much to be done the pace of change is enormously slow. 

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Well, many say that there  is lack of good PT and continue to use private transport. I agree Public Transport is not good, but, it is very good compared to few other cities. But, there are some places where PT is very good with frequency of less than a minute per bus and even frequency of around 10 mins per Volvo bus like the Ring Road. Travel within ring road is seamless if you are close to ORR as in my case wherein which my office is on ORR and home is walkable to ORR. Many friends of mine who work in my office and close to my home who have the same distance to ORR still do not use BMTC nor the office shuttle citing some or the other reason and drive down to office all alone in car even without doing pooling.

I have been using BMTC from past 3 months continuously and got adjusted to the timings and the way to change around buses. I need to hop two buses although on the ORR since Volvo do not go towards KR Puram from KTGPE. I alight at Marathalli and take normal bus to Doddenakundi. For short haul distance between Marathalli, I take any bus that is going towards KR Puram. Car ride takes me 1 hour in the best shortcut route and it costs whooping 150 rupees minimum without A/C and nearly 200 rupees wtih A/C on a fuel efficient 16kpl petrol car, BMTC ride on the main ORR with signal waits takes 1 hr 15 mins to 1 hr 30 mins and it costs me 62 rupees in a Volvo.

On a 2 wheeler I can reach at 50 rupees and in around 45-50 mins, but very risky on the ORR. Office shuttle takes around 1 hr 15 mins in shortcuts. Power of Volvo is tremendous and even with stops and signals on the ORR, it takes around the same time as office shuttle which takes the short cuts.

I personally feel why need to drive and get tired. As I suggested earlier, only problem is the frequency after 7'0 clock when all the Volvos go to rest in depots which needs to be worked by BMTC to give consistent frequency. My office provides late night pooled drop off and I am using that in such cases. Rarely I am driving down. Whenever I drive down, after coming back home, I don't feel like going anywhere with family due to getting exhausted in traffic. Whereas if I use office shuttle or BMTC to comeback, I have the energy to take the family out in car.

People quote 'n' number of reasons to avoid BMTC or office shuttles and drive down all the way. Kallanigondhu Pille Neva. They need to be controlled...

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 I was just thinking if a company like Menu, Easy Cab or Government owned KSTDC can start pooled Innova or the similar kind of A/C mini van service which can be enrolled on a website for a particular day or one month service with door pickup or nearby pickup at designated stops would reduce the amount of cars and indirectly introduce pooling. One need not own a car too, its maintenance, insurance, emission control etc..

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I agree Public Transport is not good,

Actually good is a relative term. I feel the buses are good, If I get into one of them volvos I will be pleased to complete my journey. But its before and after that worries me. I believe reach and reliability is important. Even if the bus is every 30 mins I need to know it will be there in 30 mins else something in the bus stand has to tell me it is not coming on time [hint: time display system] so I can plan an alternate. It is not enough to have a 1000 buses at corporation while the inner areas of residential locality has to walk 3 kms to the nearest bus stop on non existing pavements.

BMTC is taking faaar to long to get a proper route search function up and running on their site. They have a serious problem with their database. There are accessibility, latency and quality of information issues. They need help and investments to build real time data warehouses which can collect information from their timetabling, route scheduling, GPS tracking systems then broadcast feeds so the bus stop display systems, their websites and any other system could subscribe to their feeds.

I went on their site to find a plan to get from Nagashettyhalli to Electronic city. What route numbers? How many changes? How long? I failed to find even my stop on their list... so there. When you know the first step for a person to convert to PT is to show him his travel plan, we fail at the first step. If you are trying to convert white collar workers who traditionally use the car to take bus. Use the web to reach out, you cant go wrong.

Bottomline, even if there is a good connectivity from my area I have no clue!

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