I say we wait for Copenhagen. Work out a standard for GHG limits measured at percapita levels and rolled up to the country level. Use this for negotiating an appropriate penalty and compensation mechanism at the Copenhagen summit. Until we agree on compensation numbers we have to take a tough stand on reductions. 

Here is a telling stastic. Per a mckinsey study 77% of global power generation capacity to fulfil requirements to 2030 is yet to be built and most of it is going to be in the developing world. If there is any hope, we sign off on targets in Copenhagen or forget about any abatement.

We need to work out very quickly GHG per capita limits, valuation strategy, methods of compensation beyond carbon exchanges.

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India appears to have bent a bit in the face of pressure from industrialized countries.

Some extracts

...Another clear giveaway by India, observers point to, was agreeing to put their entire set of their climate activities up for international scrutiny. Till date India has stated that only those actions that are backed by measureable, reportable and verifiable funds and technologies from rich nations would be up for international scrutiny.

... the mention of using per capita emissions based calculations as the basis of dividing responsibilities found no mention in the MEF declaration that the Indian Prime Minister signed on. The word equity which India has always embedded in its arguments also found a weak mention in passing. 

...Even if one assumes some of these were bargaining chips for India to use at the formal climate negotiations, handing over those trump cards so early in the game does not make sense, another observer told 

Spin zone

 While an 80% cut is the most ambitious target ever considered for the developed world, India and China would still be faced with large cutbacks. 

Well I would say for the kind of population the developed countries have 80% is nothing. Per capita level comparisons need to be made and I would go as far as to say link emissions to the per capita wealth.

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/....link emissions to the per capita wealth/

Western and Europeans countries have invariably dictated terms to under developed and developing countries with their carrot and stick methods. 

Carrots by way of aid / grant or loan at low rates of interest and repayment scheduling and re-scheduling and with moratoriums in payments.  Developing nations have fallen prey to these overtures for the past many decades. 

And stick method is by threat perceptions in the form of various kinds of direct and indirect sanctions.

It is only recently that India and China have started raising their voice and also concern about the west's deliberate actions for pressurising others to contain GHG emissions as prescribed by them.  

This is not acceptable to both India and China because they have their own open agendas for improving their country's GDP, povery alleviation, food for the masses, keeping abreast with the rest of the world in their efforts for improving their international standing etc., all these while adhering to their own agenda for containing GHG emissions.

Budget 2009 has set a clear agenda and commitment for rising a green India with high priorities for investments in renewable energy and alternate energy sources.  

Any kind of proposal by G8 or G5 or EU will have to undergo minute scrutiny before they are made acceptable to the rest of the world.

- Vasanth Mysoremath  

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PM undermined India at climate talks: official

Refusing to acquiesce, it also argued that the rich nations first declare how much of the burden of reducing emissions they were willing to take in the short and long run. But at the Italy meet, India shifted its goal posts and agreed to the 2-degree and several other contentious clauses that it earlier considered non-negotiable. 

To rub salt in the wounds

...In the statement, the developed countries had disregarded India’s demand that they agree to take “strong and quantifiable” emission targets running up to 2020. 

I thought we would wait till copenhagen and negotiate... WTF happened?

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IDS,

I would wait for a proper paper to report this; TOI IMHO is best left to cover the page3 characters and their shenanigans.  Even when the nuclear deal was signed there were enough reports that we had sold out.

Based on what I read, this will mean that India will be capped at 3 tonnes per capita.  That is about 2.5 times today's level.  Even if the cap were to be extended to 10 tonnes, do we seriously want to go down that path?? 

If I were an industrialized country I would turn around and tell India that its population problem is its own making.  Who asked us to get to 1.2 billion?

In our own interest we need to take to sustainability and encourage non-conventional energy (even if not at a grid level).

Srivathsa

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Yejamaanare,

Nimma anisikegalu -

/Even if the cap were to be extended to 10 tonnes, do we seriously want to go down that path??/

Yes - because WE CAN and has the wherewithals to embark on such a holy path to save the world but with conditions attached - do not force me to pay for your earlier uncontrolled emission by way of curtailing my need for improving the living standards of our impoverished nation and also because we are still the youngest democracy and developing nation in the world.  We have our own agenda and we shall morally bind ourselves for a holistic approach to this global problem of climate change.

We have already started earning carbon credits and if the big brothers are really caring for the rest of the world, take these and give us what we need sans various types of control mechanisms in fine print.

Today's per capita emission in India is itself favourably quantified for a developing nation at international levels.  Developed nations should first practice what they are trying to preach; they must be role models and set plausible benchmarks for the rest of the world by showcasing the tangible formats of control mechanism.  

/If I were an industrialized country I would turn around and tell India that its population problem is its own making.  Who asked us to get to 1.2 billion?/

This is a moot question Sir, How can the people of land of  Kaama Sutra not practice what they preach?  

- As you know Indians are very fertile like their land and in the absence of proper education and knowledge dissemination about the advantages of small family happy family, sex was the most sought after simple but exotic entertainment for the aam aadmi.  

- Population increase is not a bane but has turned out to be boon for India and China in more than one way.  They are turning out to be the next-gen nations and have become role models for their involvement for inclusive growth of their nations.

- Vasanthkumar Mysoremath 

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Cuba's successes in HDI improvement don't get as much publicity because it is an inconvenient truth.

http://hdrstats.undp.org/countries/country_fact_sheets/cty_fs_CUB.html

Life expectancy - 78 years

Adult literacy - 99.8%

GHG emission 2.3T CO2 in 2004 - down from 3.0T in 1990.

GDP PPP - 6000 per capita.

Srivathsa

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Even if the cap were to be extended to 10 tonnes, do we seriously want to go down that path?? 

You agree to 3 tonnes while china agrees to 10 tonnes. So who got the wrong of the you-know-what? 

In our own interest 

...while the rest of the world do something different and enjoy a different standard? 

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Mysore sir,

I don't know about God, etc, but agree that children are delightful.  What sort of world are we leaving them?  My children have been lucky enough to see a tiger in the wild.  Not sure if their children (and I will advise them not to have any!!) will see even a forest. 

I think this whole demographic dividend is trying to make a virtue out of a big screw up (pun partly intended :)) in our population management.  We are in population overshoot which is the root cause of most of our problems and yet we don't want to take the bull by the horns.

IDS - what looks like the wrong end of the I-know-what today can turn out to be a real blessing.  We go the nuclear and unconventional way and extend our coal reserves for the future.  The world is not fair - get used to it.

Srivathsa

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Clever China - one of the major sources of methane emission is the bovine varieties apart from gobar emissions; they have the ability to emit unquantifiable GHG into the atmosphere while giving a few litres of milk to the masses.  Why not earn carbon credit by avoiding rearing of bovines and import milk / milk powder?  Indeed a good strategy.

Apart from holy cows, China is also importing coal because they know that exploration and excavation even at this level, cost a lot for the quality and quantity for just generating 1 mw.

So, it is better to import quality coal for their 'needs' now and future 'requirements' can be met later from their own reserves and also make a business proposition from it by selling their ware to needy nations, may be, including India, when all other forms of energy would have been exhausted by 2050;   imagine the scenario

We have another 7 years to go - Nobel laureats warning;

Fossil Fuels - crude oil may last another 70 years at the present level of consumption and over exploitation;  after midway with all the OPEC barometers, crude may be rationed to the highest bidder and if any of the -isms are applicable by that time, only favored nations will get more;

- result: All our flashy mercs, ferraris will be on the footpaths; people will be either cycling or walking; no congestion; no honking, no pollutions, all roads will be only walkways; electric vehicles may be at premium; industry closes its gates, IT may be HIT below the belt.

Coal - another 100 years - after that it will be clamoring.

Hydro/ Water resources

- we are already fighting - unless some miracle happens

- rain water harvesting could be a way out subject to congenial climate change improvements;

- ground water will be toxic tonic for puttting more aam aadmis to cremation;

finally we will be looking at the  Surya Bhagwaan for keeping us alive minus scorching heat.

-  Live moderately and modestly; reduce dikhaawaa, get back to basics and pottery cookware and crockeries; shut down plastic.

- Vasanth Mysoremath

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Continuing from where VKM sir left off.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/14/20-dollar-gallon-business-energy-oil.html

When Forbes starts talking peak oil (they are the ultimate resource optimists in general), we ought to sit up and notice.

Srivathsa

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Yejamaanre, good link.

http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/14/20-dollar-gallon-business-energy-oil.html

/ Satya kahee / - Truth is bitter

Late Ali Samson Bhaktiari, Phd., former Director, National Iranian Oil Co:

 "After some 147 years of almost uninterrupted supply growth to a record output of some 81-82 million barrels per day in the summer of 2006, crude oil production has since entered its irreversible decline."

It's a reality that's here. Consider this: Oil fields typically enter decline after 50 years of pumping. And the average age of the world's largest 14 fields? Forty-nine years.

- Let us pray.. Date: 1 January 2060

Oh God Almighty, give us this day..our daily oil/fuel...

- Bless us with a life to  Live moderately and modestly; reduce dikhaawaa, get back to basics and pottery cookware and crockeries; shut down plastic.

... Aamen

- Vasanth Mysoremath

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Extracted Quotes:

'We ack that US and dev nations have made mistakes in the past...for today's prevailing problems'.  

' But we hope that a country like India does'nt go ahead and make the same mistakes'.

'...confident that Indians were entrepreneurial enough and possessed creativity to come up with a solution to the world's global climatic problems'

'There is no contradiction between a low-carbon economy and poverty eradication....India will come up with solution to conserve environment and at the same time not sacrifice the interests of the poor'.

Source; Deccan Chronicle 19-7-09

- Nice words Madam and thank you.  

- We earnestly hope that US of A and other developed nations will also think in  a holistic manner and reduce their carbon footprints to a pro-rata level that the countries of the world may agree to at the ensuing Copenhegan Climate Change meet. 

-  We have recognised our obligation to the global problem of climate change and have since initiated sufficient measures to further reduce the  maximum possible per capita carbon footprints by Indians. 

- US & other EU nations may consider sharing their green technology methodologies with under developed and developing nations without attaching conditions that may be detrimental to the interests of the people of those nations so that the twin object of  global poverty alleviation and climate change could be addressed for posterity. 

-  Vasanth Mysoremath

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We ack that US and dev nations have made mistakes in the past...for today's prevailing problems'.   ' But we hope that a country like India does'nt go ahead and make the same mistakes'. '

They preach like the dope addict father who asked his son not to make the same mistakes he was making. Yeah right! Cough up for all the mistakes then we will promise to behave.

@VKM: Nicely summarised

The world is not fair - get used to it.

Took some time out to visit the "Green Architecture for the Future" exhibition at the Louisiana. Strongly recommend if you are in Copenhagen before September this year.

Followed a debate on the BBC the same night where Prof Sanjeev (Gupta?) from Singapore, a panelist clearly made the point on behalf of India. First developing countries are entitled to comensation from the developed world for the situation we find ourselves in. After settling whats due we look to the future which is fix emission caps on per capita levels equitably and not on Gross.

Do not live in the illusion that developed nations are going to settle for anything less. You know you are going to get the you-know-what up the you-know-what once again so dont prostrate with sayings like worlds not fair etc. learn to go out there and negotiate.  

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No, Thank you ma'm, very kind of you. 

- But Mam, you are giving big big chocolates to Pakistan even though he is not doing his home work, keeps fighting with us and is not listening to you also.

So the story goes.

Extracts from Dec.Chronicle: 20-7-09

Evergreen Ms.Hillary:' ...US and India can devise a plan that will dramatically change the way we produce, consume and conserve energy and in the process spark an explosion  of new investment and millions of jobs....' 

Indian take: ...Pl. do not push for a legal bind....But we pledge that our carbon footprints would never exceed that of the developed nations.

- India knows how to solve global problems on its home turf.  If other global players could cooperate - without conditions - we welcome to share mutually the green initiatives for creating  variable benchmarks that can deliver and help other under developed countries to cope with the onslought of global warming/global dimming.

- Vasanth Mysoremath 

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In a paradoxical development, Pres.Obama's is under pressure to sign CLEAR CUT OF 382  ACRES OF RAINFOREST AREA IN TONGASS for making inroads.

This development when Ms.Hillary is in India and advocating to India to accept the norms suggested by US for capping of per capita emission of carbon footprints by India and other developing countries. 

USA's craze for development continues unabated and rest of the world should listen to what it says? 

In Mysore, we the green warriors are being harassed to save 123 trees on Lalitha Mahal Palace Road and Obaama Sir is ordering clear cut of 382 decades old trees. 

I have signed today (21-7-09) a petition at Sl.No.12,381 addressed to Mr.Obama and those Prajas who are interested may also sign at the link below:

http://www.care2.com/go/z/e/AFoQE/zJjS/bGfBV

- Vasanth Mysoremath

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