In my opinion currently the biggest race is to get from point A to point B timely & safely at a reasonable cost without going insane.and of course..surviving the drastic effects of noise and air pollution. I am not discounting running out of oil or climate change..but will we live to see that day? I am not sure how many are aware of the drastic effects noise and air pollution is having on the health of Bangaloreans.

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Dear All,

We are touching a very very sensitive issue of global problem concerning protection, preservation and conservation of natural resources that are being exploited by mankind to have 'out of the box' living conditions.

Estimates:

fossil fuel -

Thermal -

At best world may have coal rerves that will last about 100 years - after that, it will be rationing to the highest bidder and the energy produced out of burning of low grade coal, as available in India,  will result in spewing more of CO2.  China has adopted a very clever method of conserving its quality coal reserves for posterity; it has found that cost of mining coal is quite high - hence, they are importing  quality coal that can be more productive; thereby their carbon footprints are at a low level with regard to production of thermal energy is concerned. 

Hydro -

As it is we are fighting for drinking water and it is said that future wars will be fought over issues of water.  So, hydro electric power will be limited to availability of water in the world.

It is time for people to put on the thinking cap and start being moderate and modest in their ways of living, start on line course correction to ways of consumption of scarce energy that is threatening the very existence of mankind within the next 100-150 years.

A day will come when mother earth will rise her hands and say "sorry children, you have sucked my breasts dry so fast that I do not have anything left to give you any more".  So much of natural resources are being misused for production of arms, amunition and Mass Destructive Weapons (MDWs) production of white goods, industries that cater to needs without class action... the list is long.  Do we need to exhaust our energy sources and resources on these kinds of inhuman activities? 

The ball is in our court.  

Let us protect, preserve and conserve some natural resources for our future generations. Stop misuse of energy of all forms. Go back to basics. We must look at three things in life now with utmost care: air, water and energy. Live and lead a natural life that will help the world to survive.

-Vasanthkumar Mysoremath 

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Yes this ad has caught the attention of several car users. They are prompted to switch off the vehicle engines while waiting at traffic lights. They do have a good laugh too.

However the matter is more serious than what it seems. The child in the ad says he will set a bicycle shop so that he can take advantage of the situation when there is no petrol to run a car. Though funny it is only as far as an ad can go.

There seems to be enough petrol to tip the world to a disaster before it gets over. That is the hard reality an “inconvenient truth”.

PSA 

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PSA sir,

You are right - it is a dreadful race between the effects of peak oil and climate change.

The consequences of petrol running out are far more serious than not being able to drive cars.  Our whole global economy and prosperity depends on cheap and sufficient oil.  No economy has been prosperous without sufficient energy to power it.

If you ever thought Rs.50/litre of petrol is expensive ask yourself how much you would have to pay a man to push you for 12 km.

I read somewhere a quote that said something to the effect that burning petrol to fuel our cars is like burning a Picasso to keep warm.

Srivathsa

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Pseudo-economy means false economy. The comparison of cost of petrol to cost of human labor is a comparison which is a false comparison the way it is normally made. This is because the cost of neutralizing the extra CO2 emission by the first is not being accounted.

The Picasso analogy is interesting. Very apt indeed! Thanks SY! Are we actually illegally borrowing the petrol, which rightfully belongs to our future generations?

PSA

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Please do read this interview with Mr.Michel Mallet of Total (a French oil company).

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/0,1518,618911,00.html

Some excerpts

"There are hardly any readily accessible oil fields anymore. The fields on the floor of the North Sea, for example, are practically empty. New reserves are only being found deep in the ocean, in remote regions like Kazakhstan or in the form of oil sands. None of this is cheap to produce."

"The old oil fields are dying. In the future, we will have to invest more and more just to maintain existing production."

"We won't have any problems for the next 20 years. If we handle demand responsibly, it could even last another 40 or 50 years."

 "But I do know that anyone who encourages people to buy big cars to increase his oil sales is making a big mistake. I myself walk to work."

And we in India are just getting started on our consumption binge. 

Srivathsa

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 If the oil fields are drying up, how is the petrol price being maintained at less than Rs 50/- per liter? If we think of the current price it has not changed at all wrt the inflation figures for decades. I am not sure whether oil wells are really going to dry up at all. US is sitting on a huge oil reserve in Alaska I believe. The developed countries will come up with energy solutions in time. If the oil reserves are for 30+ years it still not panics time.

PSA

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Apart from public transportation strategies there need to be other intelligent policy decisions.

For example - making it mandatory for all small passenger vehicles (private or commercial) like cars, mini-vans, 2 wheelers & auto rickshaws sold after 2015 in India to be hybrid (or totally electric wherever possible) vehicles.

Secondly, I cannot really understand the logic behind the government slapping a 104% customs duty on the honda hybrid (http://www.livemint.com/2008/06/19004101/Why-India-can8217t-afford-i.html).  The government should have given tax sops and negotiated with various manufacturers for tranfer of technology and manufacturing hybrid vehicles in India thereby giving tax breaks to those manufacturers that agree to do that. By slapping a 104% tax on a hybrid car the Government is shooting itself in the foot

If you really look at it, a pool of hybrid vans being used for van-pooling is a better alternative than running diesel guzzling smoke spewing 50 seater volvo buses with an abysmal mileage of 1.7kmpl, with each bus  costing a fortune(around 70  to 75lakhs).

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PSA-sir,

Petrol prices in India did not move past 55 even when crude oil hit $140 - it is a political decision and not one driven totally by fundamentals. 

US crude oil peaked in 1970 as predicted by M King Hubbert.  You should read about the man. 

Some data for you

Globally oil demand was about 86 million barrels a day last year. Production has remained static at about 74 mbpd for crude oil and 86 mbpd from 2005. 

IEA expects that crude oil demand will drop this year to 83 mbpd on account of the economic crisis.  At this rate (30 billion barrels/year) we will finish off our known reserves in 35-40 years. 

Production from oil fields is declining at abou 6.3% p.a.  At this rate we will need to find 6 new Saudi Arabias from now till 2030 to just replace the decline.  Please read this report.

http://www.energyandcapital.com/articles/iea-oil-report/782 

Peak oil is not about reserves.  It is about production rates.  If production rates cannot keep up with demand then we will face higher prices each year.  It may not be a monotonic increase but could be a series of peaks and troughs (high prices kill economic growth kills demand and prices come down).   Then there is the export issue.  Oil is largely nationalized and producers export surplus.  Their own consumption is growing.  A classic case is Indonesia which has turned from a net exporter to a net importer.

We have burnt through pretty much half of a once in a lifetime inheritance.  it took 100 million years of solar energy to create our oil reserves.  We have finished off half that in a consumption binge of 50 years

On alternative energy - if we have to replace all our energy needs with solar we will need to have 220,000 square km of solar panels.  We have about 20 sq km today globally.  this assumes that panels appear magically.  But it takes lots of money and energy to produce PV.  

The sooner we start our journey on alternate energy the better. 

Srivathsa

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S_Y,

Thanks for the info on the oil front. The IEA report was a good source of information. The energy supply and consumption are patently unsustainable. It is high time for us to look for new sources of energy or start learning “to live within our means”! Both are challenging enough.

Is the policy of subsidizing petrol and diesel prices good or bad in the long run I wonder? I am tempted to use the Mahatma Gandhi quote which is a favorite of many sustainability experts:

“There is enough for all our need but not enough for our greed”

PSA

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When India's population was 350 million and the world's population was 1.8 or 2 billion!  At some point we as a nation will slowly realize that his is the only way to sustainability - hopefully I will one day see cycles in large numbers, public transport vs cars and gaz guzzlers

The problem is that one man's luxury is another man's necessity!  Hopefully our children will be wiser than us and Gandhi will be relevant and respected again.

The American way that their leaders keep mentioning as "not-negotiable, will not apologize for", etc is stripping the world dry of its natural resources and will leave our future generations much poorer in every sense of the word - no natural resources, a screwed up environment, high tax rates to pay out all the deficits that we are running, energy scarcity.  And we (and China) want to chase their Dream now.  That dream will prove to be a nightmare.

Srivathsa

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“There is enough for all our need but not enough for our greed”.

The half naked fakir, as Winston Churchill had called him, is proving time & again as to what a big, tall saint to mankind he really was - much, much greater than Einstein or any known human this world had ever seen, & probably will ever see.

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Sri

U R dead right. Have a look at the following URL and you be the change you want to see:

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